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QB Rankings Analysis by Michael Nazarek/John Holler Note:
Fantasy Points calculated using a standard Performance scoring
system where Pass TD = 3 points, Rush/Rec TD = 6 points, 20 Pass
Yards = 1 point, 10 Rush/Rec Yards = 1 point, and there are no
negative points for interceptions or fumbles. The rankings are
divided into Tiers, which are groups of players ranked closely
together. Tiering Analysis: The 4th Tier contains a mix of risky veterans with youngsters that have great potential. QB Matt Hasselbeck is the safest of this group, while QB Marc Bulger could rebound with a big season if the overall health of his team holds up. QB Derek Anderson and QB Jay Cutler have great potential, but could also slide out of the top 12 if they get off to a poor start. THE
MASTERMIND'S BEST BET: Found exclusively in the Guide. 4TH TIER (SOLID FANTASY STARTERS) 8) Matt Hasselbeck, Sea Hasselbeck has grown into a solid fantasy player and, with the exception of 2006 when he missed four games with a knee injury, he has had very consistent touchdown numbers (26-22-24-28). But, when Shaun Alexander hit the wall last season, it opened the door for Hasselbeck to take over the offense and become a fantasy producer like he hasn’t done in his career to date. He set career high for attempts (562), completions (352), yards (3,966) and touchdowns (28) and established himself as a fantasy force with an offense that is finally opening up and using the passing game much more effectively. He has only missed six starts due to injury in his nine-year career, so he hasn’t been a liability in that regard. With the Seahawks going in a different direction with its running game – adding Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett and jettisoning Alexander – Hasselbeck will likely get called upon again to be primary catalyst to the offense. The Seahawks learned last year that they could win with a pass-happy offense that wasn’t predicated on long, time-consuming drives that featured the running game. If Mike Holmgren is willing to turn the Bald Bomber loose again this year, his numbers could be even more formidable than last year. STAT FACT: Yardage league owners get consistent production from Hasselbeck, but not spectacular. In his last 46 starts, he has just four 300-yard games – but three of those came last year. 9) Derek Anderson, Cle A year ago at this time, Anderson wasn’t even on the draft list of available quarterbacks and, in many instances, even when he became available, he wasn’t taken off the waiver wire except in the largest of leagues. A year later, he is at the wheel of one of the most exciting fantasy offenses in the league, with players like Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow climbing toward the top of their respective positions. Anderson didn’t start the season as the opening day starter, but came in at halftime of the first game and never gave the Browns any reason to go to rookie Brady Quinn. It looks like that won’t happen this year either. In his 15-plus games as the Browns QB, he threw 527 passes, completed 295 of those for 3,787 yards with 29 passing touchdowns and three rushing TDs. A consistent fantasy contributor, Anderson had 245 or more passing yards in 10 games and two or more touchdowns in 11 games. Aside from Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, that kind of consistent production was almost without peer. There are some who will contend that his second time around the league could lead to a step backward, but, historically speaking, quarterbacks that have a breakout season as a passer (not a scrambler) tend to follow it up with another solid season of equal or even better numbers. Is this too high for Anderson? If he comes anywhere close to his 2007 numbers, this may be too low. STAT FACT: Anderson’s numbers dropped at the worst time for fantasy owners – at the end of season during the fantasy playoffs. In his first eight starts, he had four games with three or more touchdowns. In his final seven, he had none. So, too, did the yardage numbers suffer – in his first 11 starts, he had nine games in which he through for 245 or more. In his final four starts, he had just one game with more than 185 yards and threw just five TDs in those games. 10) Marc Bulger, SL Once viewed as one of the fantasy elite, injuries and team ineffectiveness have dropped Bulger considerably in the eyes of many fantasy owners. In his five years as a starter, he has been able to play all 16 games just once – missing four games last year and eight games in 2005. When healthy, he has produced consistent numbers. In his three years making 14 or more starts, he has very good yardage totals (3,845-3,964-4,301) and good touchdown numbers (22-21-24). But last year was very troubling for Bulger owners. In the 12 games he started, he averaged less than 200 yards a game and one touchdown. His offensive line was brutal, but he did little to raise the level of his own play to carry the team. He was one of the bigger busts of the fantasy world in 2007 and many owners gave up on him. He had more than one TD in just two games of the 12 he played and less than 200 yards passing in half of his starts. His stock is devalued this year for a reason. He could be a nice mid-round selection, but he isn’t going to be a lead-pipe lock starter on draft day and could be one of the players who suffer a significant slide. STAT FACT: One of Bulger’s early selling points was his penchant for rushing touchdowns. In 2003-04, he had seven rushing TDs. Those days are clearly over. He hasn’t scored a rushing TD in his last 42 starts dating back to 2004 and in 2007 he rushed the ball just nine times for 13 yards. 11) Jay Cutler, Den Cutler entered 2007 as the only option at quarterback for the Broncos after a solid five-game stint as the starter when he was handed the starting job in 2006. While he had an up-and-down 2007 season, he finished with 3,497 yards passing and 20 touchdowns. In his first nine games, he had just one game with more than one TD pass. But, in the final seven games, he had four games with multiple TD passes. Much in the same way he made a big splash when he was handed the starting job with five games to go in 2006 –when he had two TD passes in four of five starts – he once again looked strong late and seemed to be developing connections with his receivers that had been missing earlier in the season. Cutler is going to be a player that some owners won’t view as clear-cut starter, but with the Broncos not having the typically-dominant running game to rely on as much as they have in recent years, the Broncos offense may well import and offense that stresses the short and intermediate passing game as well as the bomb squad packages. If the team does go to more no-huddle, hurry-up passing formations as expected, Cutler could be a nice sleeper pick. STAT FACT: Cutler has at least one TD pass in 17 of his 21 career starts. |
