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The 2008 10 Demandments by: The Almighty God (as told to his humble servant John Holler) Editor's Note: Below you will find FIVE of the TEN Fantasy Demandments for 2008. If you'd like to read all ten, please click HERE to order our 2008 Pre-Season Draft Guide. In the course of every fantasy football season, there are moments that can changes that have a pronounced effect on any owner’s season. It can happen on draft day – either striking rich on a player like Adrian Peterson as the 15th running back or taking a dump with Larry Johnson at pick No. 2. It can be the result of injuries. It can be the result of dumb luck. Stuff happens. There is only one time when you have complete control over your season and that is on draft day. The decisions you make on draft day will be the catalyst to the rest of your season. Take too many risks that don’t pay off and you may have to mortgage one or more of your top picks to get the talent to stay alive. Never take a flight from quality and have a deep roster and other owners will come crawling within a couple of weeks looking for a trade to help save their seasons. If your team is your house, your draft is its foundation. Without a strong foundation, your house will likely fall. For that reason, the fantasy gods have sent down a pair of stone tablets. Unlike Commandments, which are broken on a daily basis, Demandments call for strict adherence. Your level of belief is up to you, but these are the words, they’re written in stone and the fact they look like the end credits to “King of the Hill” is just a happy coincidence. These are the Ten Demandments for 2008. Adhere to them and you will see the promised land. THE FIRST DEMANDMENT: Thou Shalt Be Willing to Sacrifice In most leagues, regardless of scoring methods, LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson are viewed as the top two picks. Beyond them, however, it gets a little dicey. A case could be made that the third pick among RBs should be Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai, Larry Johnson, Clinton Portis, Frank Gore or Marshawn Lynch. There are seven players on that list. If another owner in your league covets a particular player at the Nos. 3 or 4 spot (where you’re drafting at) and he’s at No. 7 or 8, you have a lot of options you can exploit. If you believe you can get as much production from Portis at No. 8 as you would from Jackson at No. 3, don’t hesitate to flip-flop first- and second-round picks. You still get a player you can use as your franchise bell cow and get a pick earlier in the second round to fill out your roster. Being stuck at Nos. 3 and 4 are no picnic this season – just as many learned last year in the same positions. THE SECOND DEMANDMENT: Thou Shalt Not Overkill There will be a temptation if the chance strikes to go heavy on Patriots. However, a look around the AFC East and you can see that New England is likely going to have the division wrapped up sometime around Thanksgiving. Last year, they kept their starters going because the team was chasing perfection and Tom Brady and Randy Moss were looking for all-time scoring records. Every game the Pats play this year will the Super Bowl for its opponent. They likely aren’t going to roll up monster numbers again this year. In the years after Dan Marino and Peyton Manning set the standards for touchdowns, both had significantly worse numbers the following year. Records like that need to go the route that Manning and Brady each did – have 20 TDs six games in and have the coaches start calling pass plays from the 1-yard line instead of runs. Overloading on one team essentially drops your winning and losing percentage down to one game. It’s a dangerous game to play and one that, more times than not, burns the owner who has done it. It is especially dangerous to have a running back and any other teammate as fantasy starters. There is only one ball and splitting up the potential for multi-TD games is a risk you should consider very carefully before undertaking. THE THIRD DEMANDMENT: Thou Shalt Cover Thy Ass There was a time not too long ago when head coaches would refer to their top two running backs as 1A and 1B. What that really meant was that he one that was a B-minus and another that was a C-plus. It was the salad days for subscribers to the Stud Running Back Theory and those that locked down the best RBs early on draft day were the kings. But somewhere during this decade, owners discovered that running backs don’t need to hang around on reputation alone. A year after winning the rushing title, Emmitt Smith was out of Dallas. A year after winning the rushing title, Curtis Martin was cast adrift. Two years after setting the single-season scoring record, Shaun Alexander was cut by Seattle. Teams have figured out that, with the exception of L.T., running backs asked to be a one-man show break down during the season and their career are all but done at the age of 30. Teams have countered that by going with a two-back system. When the Saints, Bears, Colts and Patriots made the Final Four in 2006, all of them had tandem backfields. Last year, we saw more teams going to that approach. The number is even higher this year. It may seem like a wasted pick, but you’re top RB is likely the faceplate of your franchise. He needs insurance. His backup/running mate has more value to you than others. It may mean jumping the second featured backs are thinning out, but it will be worth it. Three years ago, we wouldn’t have advised covering thy ass. Now it’s a Demandment. THE FIFTH DEMANDMENT: Thou Shalt Learn From Thy Past It is amazing how quickly owners will forget what happened last year. Sure, they’ll remember that they used their first pick on Larry Johnson and got scorched, but the simple truth is that no league has ever been won in the first two rounds. If you were to make a pre-draft list of the top 25 players, by the time you get to the end of the 24-person league, it is very likely that 22 or more of the players you have listed are gone. That’s just how it is. Everybody gets to share the wealth. Leagues are won in the middle rounds. It’s about having an eye for this year’s crop of talent, but, just as importantly, it’s also about learning from your previous mistakes. Most leagues are on-line and have at least one geek that has downloads of the past several seasons. Some owners are as predictable as Old Faithful. One guy takes two running backs and a wide receiver (in that order) with his first three picks every year. Another guy is always the first to have two quarterbacks. Some idiot can be counted on to take a defense in the sixth round. Some owners devalue certain positions and, once they have one stud, they will avoid it round after round. Another owner will always go for the between-the-tackle types (Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis, Rudi Johnson) every year and pass up game-breaking RBs. You can learn a lot about them by looking at their history, but you can learn more about yourself. Take a critical look at your drafts from year to year and discover your own tendencies. While memories get fuzzier with time, owners who lived through a specific season will remember that they got no WR production or the QBs couldn’t throw scores on the road. Learning from your own mistakes, such as historically waiting too long to take your first QB could be something you make a mental note to correct at draft day this year. It doesn’t mean you need to force your own hand, but knowing your own weaknesses can be cathartic. THE SEVENTH DEMANDMENT: Thou Shalt Study The Good Book By the time your draft rolls around, you will have likely gone over the player rankings with a fine-toothed comb. You’ve paid attention to the training camp reports. Many of you broke down and bought Dish Network if you didn’t already have it to get NFL Network for 24/7 news scrolls and occasional new programming. But faith without works is dead. To succeed in fantasy football, you need to cover as many bases as are available to you. Read and re-read your league rules so nothing catches you off-guard. Make sure to note the corresponding bye week of your players before you make the pick to be assured that you don’t already have a scheduling conflict or the pick could create a potential conflict (for example, if you has Jason Campbell as a sleeper QB candidate, you might not want to take Tony Romo because they share a bye week). Owners that get themselves in a bind for one or two weeks can shrug it off all they want, but if you meet someone in Week 6 who is without three of his top five picks, your chances of winning double. You can never give away a week and shrug it off. Those who do are the ones who always get burned. Depending on when your draft is, the Internet is littered with “expert” drafts – although the term “expert” is thrown around a little too liberally to the Big Guy’s liking. While many will look at these drafts and simply see the final end-result team they have, they are excellent opportunities for smart owners to use their own draft lift and see what kind of team they would end up with. Should I take a run at Tom Brady with the sixth pick? Go through a mock draft, pick Brady in the six-hole and see what you come up with for a roster when all is said and done. Your opponents are likely looking at many of these same mocks, but they aren’t seeing the big picture. Try it once. You’ll be amazed how different your roster looks depending on how you draft if the first couple of rounds. Homework sucks, but those that do it well always get the best grades, don’t they? . .
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