4/19/2012
By John Cooney

 

Average Yards At Reception (and other WR stats that matter)

"You don't get hurt running straight ahead...three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust offense. I will pound you and pound you until you quit."

"You know, I still didn't know what the hell he was talking about." - after listening to Sid Gillman describe his passing offense for almost a whole day.

'There are three things that can happen when you pass, and two of them ain't good,'

"Statistics always remind me of a fellow who drowned in a river where the average depth was only three feet."

Old-time Ohio State HC Woody Hayes spouted these verbal gems of offensive football back in the day. Hayes felt the pass was more of a weapon of surprise, rather than an option to be called fifty-five to sixty-five percent of the time. My how times have changed. Fantasy football followed a very similar line of thinking until recently. Fantasy draft plans almost always focus on loading up on running backs early. As the game on the field evolves, with the passing game now the centerpiece of the majority of NFL offenses, fantasy football owners need to adapt their draft plans, roster utilization and overall thinking.

Gang, they ain’t “pounding it out” on the ground anymore like Coach Hayes did. Running Back By Committee is the rule now rather than the exception. Aligning your fantasy football philosophy with Woody Hayes and refusing to hear what Sid Gillman (a passing game innovator) was saying about the air attack is not setting you on the path to fantasy football titles anytime soon. Today, there are certainly more than three things that can and do happen when the ball is in the air; completions/receptions, big plays and touchdowns are the big positive fantasy factors. The quarterback gets most of the attention, glowing and glaring, with each pass play attempted. On the other side of those laser launches and rainbow rockets are the wide receivers, benefitting from loose rule changes, rocket-armed passers and devious offensive geniuses mapping out various methods of aerial assault. Running backs have always and still do get first round rock-star treatment in fantasy drafts. The quarterbacks are still the glamour boys and naturally grab the big points, but there is a tidal shift of importance toward the wide receivers that can make the difference in a championship season. Those pass catching runners of the route tree bring instant big points to a fantasy lineup with their game-breaking, “take-it-to-the-house” scores, microwave-fast yardage accumulation and steady point-per-reception production. Receiver is a “committee” position that fantasy footballers have been working with for years, especially with the introduction of the spread offenses in the pro game. Today, on the real turf or the virtual field of play, the wide receiver plays a bigger role in winning fantasy football more than ever.

One thing old coach Hayes stated that is very true, especially within the numbers-driven world of fantasy sports… "Statistics always remind me of a fellow who drowned in a river where the average depth was only three feet." So true! So true! Fantasy football owners have the ability to reference every conceivable statistic, result and projection in countless performance categories. The avalanche of information can become so cumbersome and confusing that a loss of focus and the value of the information are lost. Gathering pertinent info is a start, but knowing what to do with it and how to “read’ it is most important. When breaking down the wide receiver position, the stats that are often brought into focus are receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. Fanballers looking to dig deeper delve into the number of times a receiver is throw at (targets), yards after the catch (YAC) and yards per reception average. There are even more variables that can assist fantasy franchise owners make key decisions on wide receivers’ values. The type of offensive system a receiver plays in, his quarterback, the defense on a particular game, all additional factors that go into a thorough pre-draft going over of how a wide out might perform for a season, or even week-to-week. There are three numerical observations that actually open the doors for decision-making clarity; SNAPS, TARGETS, and average yards at reception (AYAR).
SNAPS indicate the number of plays a player or receiver participates in on the field, with or without the ball going in his direction.

TARGETS, as most know, represent how many passes are thrown in the direction of a wide receiver, tight end or running back.

Average Yards AT Reception (AYAR) is the distance or depth of a receiver’s route at the moment he catches a pass.

Any skill position player that has a chance to be successful needs opportunity. Opportunity comes with being on the field first. Obviously a back, tight end or wideout cannot help his fantasy owners if he isn’t taking the field regularly, running routes and making himself available to his QB and you. Taking inventory of a receiver’s SNAPS line each week paints a picture of that pass catchers chances of seeing balls eventually coming his way. In the 2011 season, there were five wide receivers that topped the 1000 snaps mark, led by Detroit’s Calvin Johnson (1066). Following the Lions Megatron was Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald (1039), Falcon target magnet Roddy White (1039), Jets’ top receiving playmaker Santonio Holmes (1026) and the Patriots super slot man Wes Welker (1021). Four of these route-runners eclipsed the 80-catch, 1000 yard marks and all had 8 or more TDs. Holmes was the only “disappointment” of the top five snaps leaders with just 51 catches and a little over 650 yards receiving. The Jets receiver was also the only one of the top group to be targeted under 100 times (98). Opportunity begins with being on the field. Snaps means your man is (or isn’t) on the field.

Being a consistent SNAPS star is a teaser stat to entice the fantasy franchise owner to dig deeper in wide receiver breakdowns. The next level number to pay attention to is one we are all familiar with these days; TARGETS. You want your route runners to figure in to a team’s offensive game plan and in the crosshairs of the quarterback. Again, being in on a high number of snaps brings about opportunity, and opportunity often brings results. Four of the same group of five receivers noted above as the leaders in snaps for 2011 (Johnson, Fitzgerald, White and Welker) also were the NFL leaders in targets. White led all receivers with 175 passes his way, Welker was 2nd at 169 while Johnson and Fitzgerald followed up with 151 each. Extending this target list, of the 22 wide receivers that tallied at least 900 snaps last season, all but four were targeted by their QBs 100 times or more. Making targets a priority study in your pre-draft plans and then into the season is vital to fielding your best team over the course of a season, and inserting a productive weekly lineup from the receiver position. One can micro-study the target stat by breaking down a wideout’s use inside the 20 yard line, or the Red Zone. This is a stat that can be useful at times, but has gotten more attention and carried more evaluation weight than it is worth. While it is a fact that certain receivers have become “specialists” as red zone targets, like Plaxico Burress, or Brandon Marshall, the stat is a bit fuzzy in accuracy and fantasy effectiveness. Yes, a number of “big” receivers are featured in the red zone on fades and back-shoulder darts. But many of the smaller, shifty slot-types like Lance Moore, Wes Welker and Pierre Garcon are targeted in the red zone often not on scoring attempts, but to get the football closer to pay dirt. It is still a target, and a chance to score, but red zone targets are not always a great determining factor in receiver evaluation. What is important is to move on and read what a receiver does with the ball in his hands, and where he is usually being targeted. How far downfield is a wideout going when he hauls in a passer’s offering is quite notable.

AYAR (average yards at reception) details how a receiver is being utilized in the route tree. Much is made of a player’s YAC (yards after catch), and the importance of that ability. But as an indicator of big-play ability and potential for big game fantasy points, AYAR rules over YAC. A pass catcher with an AYAR of 4.8 points to a possession receiver that is pegged as a safety valve, dump-off or bubble-screen type. That 4.8 AYAR (Lions’ Nate Burleson) means your wideout is basically running five-yard patterns and is not much of a deep option for his team., or yours. Conversely, a wideout with a 14.8 AYAR (former SD Vincent Jackson) consistently is getting the ball 14 yards downfield from scrimmage. Sure, a receiver’s average yards per reception (YPR) can be boosted by his ability to pick up yards after the catch., but the pass catcher grabbing targets more consistently down the field (11 or more yards at the point of reception) is much more likely to put together big yardage games, find the end zone more frequently and produce more fantasy points with less receptions. Minnesota’s Percy Harvin has hauled in 60, 71 and 87 passes in his first three seasons as a pro. Yet, with the 218 receptions Harvin has not been able to break 1000 yards receiving in a season. In 2011, Harvin’s AYAR was an abysmal 4.1; that’s 4.1 yards of route depth per catch. The league average AYAR for wideouts is 9.1. Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson, who was on the field for just 633 snaps (Harvin saw 621), had a 2011 AYAR of 12.3 and was able to explode for over 1200 yards and 15 scores. Last year in San Diego, Vincent Jackson realized a 14.8 AYAR and amassed over 1100 receiving yards and 9 TDs on a modest 60 catches. Detroit’s Nate Burleson, a superior YAC producer compared to V-Jax, nabbed 73 Matt Stafford passes (13 more than Jackson) but was handicapped by a 4.8 AYAR, and finished the 2011 campaign with 757 yards and just 3 TDs. Simply put, the wide receiver that is running those short drag routes and hitches off the line has to work extremely hard to put together eye-popping fantasy points and do it consistently. Need more statistical evidence? Try this. Breaking down the 200 wide receivers that caught a pass in the NFL last season, the league average yards after catch (YAC) was 4.04 yards per catch. Those same 200 receivers hauled in passes at 9.08 AYAR, double the yards receivers were getting AFTER the catch. Put another way, if you are making a decision on which receiver to draft in 2012, or later on, which receiver is best to start, isn’t it better to start with yards already in-hand at reception than hope for ones after the catch?

A look back at the 2011 performances of wide receivers, and AYAR, revealed some surprising and tell-tale facts and explanations. For instance, some fleet-footed fliers with deep ball reputations closed the 2011 season with disappointing AYAR. Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace, noted as one of the league’s top deep threats, averaged just 9.8 yards at reception. While that is above the league average of 9.1, it is far below WRs of similar mercurial talent like Philadelphia’s DeSean Jackson (12.3 AYAR), Ravens’ Torrey Smith (12.0), now Charger Robert Meachem (12.9) and Oakland’s Denarius Moore (14.7). Jets’ playmaking wideout Santonio Holmes fell below the league average, netting a pedestrian 8.6 AYAR. Slot receivers are supposed to work in close, but the Rams rookie duo of Greg Salas and Austin Pettis couldn’t break a 6 yard average depth when they caught their passes. Pettis ran a pathetic route tree at 5.9 AYAR while Salas seemed to barely get off the line of scrimmage at 1.3 AYAR. Broncos’ late blooming star Demaryius Thomas can complain about his former QB (Tim Tebow) not getting him the ball, but when he did make a catch from Tebow it was a healthy 13.3 yards down field on average. San Diego’s QB Philip Rivers and coach Norv Turner have a rep of going deep, and the AYAR of the top Charger receivers proves it. Twin towers Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Jackson (now in Tampa Bay) experienced AYAR of 15.6 and 14.8 respectively (OUTSTANDING!!!). 2011 rookie Charger receiver Vincent Brown produced an impressive 12.5 AYAR. Heading into the 2012 season, best to jot down new Charger #1 pass catcher Robert Meachem, a 12.9 AYAR himself.

As for players who were on the field more than one might have thought in 2011, check out these SNAPS totals. Bronco WR Eric Decker had the 9th most snaps among all receivers with 988. Cleveland’s rookie Greg Little was 10th (983), Nate Burleson 6th (997), the Cardinals Andre Roberts 14th (964) and Bengals’ Jerome Simpson 23rd (893). As for getting the most out of their modest opportunities, the Giants Victor Cruz (774), Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson (633), Saints’ Marques Colston (675) and then-Cowboy Laurent Robinson (601) were incredibly productive with less snaps.

The AYAR warriors last season (based on a minimum of 30 catches) were led by Malcolm Floyd’s 15.6, Johnny Knox’ 15.3, Vincent Jackson’s 14.8 and Denarius Moore’s 14.7. Miami’s Brian Hartline surprised with a 13.0 AYAR, Calvin Johnson and Torrey Smith checked in with 12.0’s and Cincy rookie standout AJ Green racked up an 11.9 AYAR.

These wide receivers better be making their way onto and higher on your own draft boards for this year: Denarius Moore (Oakland), Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker (Denver), Robert Meachem and Vincent Brown (San Diego), Torrey Smith (Baltimore), Brandon LaFell (Carolina), Greg Little (Cleveland) and Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh). They all had excellent AYAR for 2011, gained valuable experience (solid SNAPS totals) and saw quality targets, if not quantity.

There are stats, and then there are stats that really matter. Nothing is perfect in this wild and exciting sport of fantasy football. To win in today’s game, a fantasy coach or manager needs to be innovative and cutting edge, boldly working through the statistical haze and fog to get to the clarity of meaningful information. Fantasy sports have produced countless formulas and numerical breakdowns that tell many stories. But common sense, if believed and applied to sensible information, will create winning plans. If a player is going to be successful he has to be “in the game” (SNAPS), be an active part of the game plan (TARGETS) and get the football in advantageous situations (AYAR). SNAPS, TARGETS AND AYAR… my way of breaking down the true fantasy values of the wide receivers in today NFL.

End.