Hangin' in the Red Zone

by: John Holler

Editor's Note: Below you will find a portion of the Red Zone statistics for QBs and Fantasy Analysis of those Statistics. If you'd like to read the sections covering RBs, WRs, and TEs, please click HERE to order our 2023 Pre-Season Draft Guide.

In the era of analytics, one stat that doesn’t get nearly the credit it deserves is who shows up in the red zone. It’s an unsung, but important stat because, with all the changes that have been made over the years to how fantasy leagues operate to increase scoring with yardage and PPR bonuses, the bread of butter of fantasy football remains scoring touchdowns – many of which come when the field is reduced to the red zone.

For the purposes of our analysis, the red zone as it applies to passing and receiving is from the 20-yard line in. Any time a quarterback drops to pass inside the 20-yard line, you can realistically expect that a pass could result in a touchdown. When it comes to rushing, however, the typical red zone doesn’t apply. A handoff from the 15-yard line can’t realistically be expected to result in a touchdown. Therefore, the red zone as it pertains to running the ball starts at the 5-yard line – every time a running back gets the ball from the 5-yard line in, there is a realistic expectation that a touchdown can be scored.

Below are the red zone numbers from the 2022 season and the last three years (to give a longer-term prospective of someone’s red zone usage). Much can be learned from these numbers – ranging from who shines in the red zone and who doesn’t produce with any sense of consistency…and whose names don’t show up at all. As you start to rank players, let this serve as a guide to help shape your opinions because, while it may not get the attention it deserves, performance in the red zone is critical.

 

QUARTERBACKS

 

PASSING 2022 (minimum 49 attempts)

 

PLAYER AT-CM-YD-TD-INT

Patrick Mahomes 126-74-449-34-3

Kirk Cousins 109-68-443-23-2

Tom Brady 105-60-346-20-0

Justin Herbert 104-59-318-20-1

Josh Allen 96-47-375-24-6

Joe Burrow 96-57-410-23-1

Jared Goff 92-54-336-22-1

Aaron Rodgers 83-52-363-20-2

Trevor Lawrence 83-45-306-20-3

Geno Smith 77-41-297-18-0

Darek Carr 59-25-175-11-2

Lamar Jackson 58-28-201-13-1

Dak Prescott 57-40-307-18-1

Davis Mills 54-25-193-14-1

Matt Ryan 54-28-214-12-0

Jalen Hurts 54-27-193-9-1

Kenny Pickett 52-21-161-5-1

Ryan Tannehill 51-29-213-10-0

Andy Dalton 49-31-250-11-1

Russell Wilson 49-25-193-9-1

Tua Tagovailoa 39-32-231-16-0

 

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US

• Mahomes is the dominant RZ quarterback in the league
• Cousins is surprisingly effective finishing drives in the red zone
• Allen was awful (six picks) and left a left a lot of points on the board
• Burrow gained a lot of yardage in the RZ
• Smith made the most of his RZ opportunities with zero interceptions
• Carr’s performance in the red zone may have led to his Vegas ouster
• Almost half of Prescott’s RZ completions were touchdowns
• Hurts wasn’t utilized nearly enough as a red zone passer
• Pickett has a lot of improvement to make in scoring range
• 50 percent of Tagovailoa’s RZ completed scored touchdowns

 

PASSING LAST THREE YEARS (minimum 140 attempts)

 

PLAYER AT-CM-YD-TD-INT

Tom Brady 335-196-1225-80-0

Patrick Mahomes 316-187-1113-86-10

Josh Allen 315-177-1203-79-8

Justin Herbert 295-167-1083-69-4

Aaron Rodgers 283-181-1143-85-4

Kirk Cousins 256-156-1121-74-3

Matt Ryan 234-124-870-50-1

Derek Carr 230-118-730-43-5

Matthew Stafford 226-121-57-4

Ryan Tannehill 210-130-948-56-5

Joe Burrow 209-123-871-51-6

Jared Goff 208-121-797-49-4

Kyler Murray 192-110-699-44-4

Russell Wilson 184-107-760-53-6

Dak Prescott 181-118-822-48-4

Lamar Jackson 172-100-697-45-3

Baker Mayfield 160-97-632-41-0

Carson Wentz 160-88-612-38-5

Daniel Jones 146-77-414-24-4

Tua Tagovailoa 145-89-518-40-3

Trevor Lawrence 141-73-470-27-5

 

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US

• Yet another reason why Brady is the G.O.A.T.
• Mahomes has more picks than any other quarterback in the RZ
• Rodgers remains a strong touchdown threat in the red zone
• Cousins is quietly effective in the RZ
• A lot of old quarterbacks are at the top of the list
• Goff has effectively the same red zone numbers as Burrow
• Wilson was good in the red zone in his final two seasons in Seattle
• Mayfield hasn’t thrown an interception in the red zone
• Jones needs a lot of improvement in scoring territory

 

RUSHING 2022 (minimum 4 attempts)

 

PLAYER AT-YD-TD

Jalen Hurts 19-12-9

Justin Fields 11-20-5

Josh Allen 11-12-4

Joe Burrow 9-14-4

Daniel Jones 9-(-3)-3

Trevor Lawrence 6-7-5

Kyler Murray 6-6-3

Kenny Pickett 6-5-3

Marcus Mariota 5-(-1)-3

Brock Purdy 5-(-2)-1

Patrick Mahomes 4-13-3

Ryan Tannehill 4-4-2

Jimmy Garoppolo 4-7-2

Aaron Rodgers 4-(-1)-1

 

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US

• Hurts is in a class by himself as a RZ rusher
• Allen still calls his own number a lot in close
• If Fields is going to be a fantasy stud, this category will be a big reason why
• Lawrence doesn’t run often, but when he does, it’s effective
• Rodgers isn’t the red zone rushing threat he used to be
• Mahomes doesn’t run often, but scores points

 

RUSHING LAST THREE YEARS (minimum 9 attempts)

 

PLAYER AT-YD-TD

Jalen Hurts 32-26-16

Josh Allen 31-41-15

Cam Newton 25-42-12

Joe Burrow 19-12-6

Kyler Murray 18-18-11

Ryan Tannehill 16-36-13

Justin Fields 12-23-6

Trevor Lawrence 12-22-6

Lamar Jackson 12-14-5

Daniel Jones 12-12-4

Sam Darnold 10-23-6

Carson Wentz 10-9-5

Tua Tagovailoa 9-17-6

Jacoby Brissett 9-13-6

Zach Wilson 9-8-4

 

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US

• Hurts is quickly become the dominant RZ rushing QB
• Allen hasn’t let a huge contract prevent him from taking the ball himself
• There aren’t a lot of the top-rated quarterbacks on this list
• Murray is extremely effective when he takes off in close
• Who knew Tannehill was such an automatic scoring red zone touchdowns?
• Jones tries to score in close, but fails too often
• Jackson used to be the top guy here. Not anymore (by a long shot)
• Darnold is pretty solid in close looking to finish drives himself
• Tagovailoa doesn’t run a lot, but is effective when does near the end zone

RUNNING BACKS

As mentioned atop this release, if you like to read the entire Red Zone feature, please click HERE to order our 2023 Pre-Season Draft Guide.

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